Chart source: University of Virginia Weldon Cooper Center, Demographics Research GROUP (2020), Virginia Population Estimates
Nobody can predict the future. But at the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service, Shonel Sen and her team are awfully close.
This July, the Weldon Cooper Center’s Demographics Research Group released population projections for Virginia through 2050, split up by city and county. The highest level of growth is expected to occur in urban areas and along the Interstate 95 corridor. By 2030, the statewide population is expected to increase by 6%, from 8.6 million to 9.1 million. By 2050, the study projects 10.5 million residents.
“Overall, the statewide growth rate has decelerated over the last few decades, and it’s expected to hold true to that pattern,” Sen says. “That assumes the commonwealth continues to experience lower birth rates, higher death rates and fewer people moving into the state.”
The Richmond region is an exception. The city’s population is expected to grow 19.3%, from 226,610 to 270,425 residents by 2050. Henrico County will jump 26.4%, from 334,389 in 2020 to 422,954 citizens by 2050, and Chesterfield County is projected to eclipse Virginia Beach over the next 30 years, growing 38.4% from 364,548 residents in 2020 to 504,814 by 2050.
“Our population projections for Virginia provide a baseline to help with planning, budgeting and program development,” Sen says. “With that said, it’s important to remember that the projections are inherently uncertain. These numbers just provide a probable future for the population of the commonwealth, given past observations and current trends.”
In the past, Weldon Cooper’s projections have been on the mark. For its last 10-year projection — from 2010 to 2020 — actual population figures for 120 of the 133 cities and counties fell within 5 percentage points, including Richmond and the surrounding counties. Hanover and Henrico were within 1 percentage point, and statewide the projected population beat the actual census count by 0.27%. The average margin of error by locality was 2.33%.
News of the projected growth comes at a time when the local housing market, despite talk of a recession, continues to see prices spike and inventory shrink. Karen Berkness, a real estate agent with Joyner Fine Properties, says she expects home construction in rural areas to increase dramatically.
“In some of the far-flung places in the counties — west of Short Pump, and in places like Magnolia Green [in western Chesterfield] — they’re building and selling houses as fast as they can,” she says. “They’re starting to run out of land. They’re going to have to start building in Hanover and eastern Henrico, where you still have some space.”
Within the city limits, Richmond City Council approved a master plan for growth in 2020 called Richmond 300, with the aim of developing the city in a way that is equitable and sustainable.
“We want people to move into our city,” says Maritza Pechin, the deputy director for equitable development in the city’s planning department. Pechin’s job involves reworking zoning laws, balancing the capital budget and making sure that plans are implemented as they were developed.
“The whole purpose of that document is to plan for growth,” she says. “We want to help grow the city in the way we’ve said we want it to be done.”
