Pro-choice advocates gather outside the Virginia Capitol on Saturday evening.
Over the weekend, the U.S. Supreme Court’s widely anticipated decision to overturn Roe v. Wade kicked off a national outpouring of anger and pro-choice protests across the country. The decision has been expected since early May, when Politico first published a leaked draft majority opinion indicating the court was planning to overturn the long-standing constitutional right to an abortion.
Democrats are vowing to fight back. But with the country awash in political angst over guns, inflation and the national spectacle of the Jan. 6 committee hearings on Capitol Hill, how will how the abortion issue play out politically ahead of the Congressional midterms this fall, and statewide General Assembly elections in 2023?
Before Friday’s ruling, restricting abortion access had been a political nonstarter in Virginia. During the recent budget negotiations, Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a pro-life Republican, pushed to ban Medicaid coverage for abortions in certain cases where the fetus had “incapacitating” deformities, but he was rebuffed by the state Senate. Immediately after the ruling late Friday morning, Youngkin told The Washington Post that he’d already reached out to four Republican lawmakers to work on legislation banning abortions after 15 weeks but would settle for a ban after 20 weeks in an effort to seek bipartisan support. In Virginia, abortion procedures remain legal through the first and second trimesters of pregnancy. Youngkin said he also supports exceptions in cases of rape, incest or when the mother’s life is at risk.
In a purplish state that Youngkin barely won in 2021, edging Democrat Terry McAuliffe by just 2 percentage points, Republicans have tread lightly on the abortion issue. With the ruling, however, the abortion debate has quickly taken center stage.
During a press conference Friday afternoon on Capital Square, pro-choice advocates and local Democratic politicians — including Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney and state Sen. Jennifer McClellan — promised the fight was just beginning, aggressively denouncing Youngkin’s proposed 15-week ban. Banning abortions, or further restricting access to abortions in Virginia, they said, would have devastating effects, particularly for marginalized communities.
“Today marks the beginning of a dangerous chapter in our history, the history of this country,” said an animated Stoney. “Without a doubt, more people will struggle, more people will die, and we will all be less free. Denying access to reproductive health care will adversely impact our most vulnerable, especially those in our Black and brown communities, and those living in poverty.”
McClellan, who recounted her days in the General Assembly 11 years ago as the state’s first pregnant lawmaker, said the state has already become a “safe haven” for those seeking abortions in the South.
“We will fight tooth and nail to stay that way,” she said. “And although the governor wants to have a 15-week ban, which is out of step with what a majority of Virginians want, we’re going to say no. We’re going to say to the party that professes to care about parental rights, you will not insert yourself in the decision about whether to become a parent in the first place. That is the most fundamental parental right there is.”
Jamie Lockhart, executive director of Planned Parenthood Advocates of Virginia, said the state is perilously close to losing the fundamental right to an abortion.
“Knowing it was coming does not make this moment any less devastating,” Lockhart said at the press conference on Friday. “But the days of legal abortion in Virginia may be numbered. … We are only one state senate seat away from a Texas-style abortion ban.”
Indeed, while Republicans control the House of Delegates, the state Senate is currently split 21-19 in the Democrats’ favor. All 140 seats in the General Assembly will be up for election in 2023.
How the Supreme Court’s decision will impact the Congressional midterms this fall is an open question. With President Biden’s approval ratings hovering at 39% amid skyrocketing inflation and record-high gas prices, can the abortion issue mobilize Democratic voters?
Political analyst Bob Holsworth says the ruling will likely become a “crystallizing issue” in a few key Congressional races, particularly the reelection campaigns of U.S. Reps. Abigail Spanberger, D-7th District, and Elaine Luria, D-2nd District.
Rich Meagher, a political science professor at Randolph-Macon College, isn’t so sure. “The Democrats have been in this sort of national death spiral,” he says. Biden’s been ineffective at articulating the country’s economic troubles, Meagher says, and Democrats generally have struggled to win over critical suburban voters with what he calls the more nuanced “liberal worldview.”
Meagher says the abortion issue could help Democrats in some battleground Congressional districts, such as Spanberger’s and Luria’s races, but whether it’s enough to allow Democrats to hold on to the House this fall is difficult to say.
“Maybe this helps the Democrats nationally,” he says, “but I don’t know that this going to lead to a Democratic resurgence or resurrect the Biden presidency.”
Several dozen protestors marched around the Virginia Capitol and up to the federal courthouse on Saturday. Capitol Police would eventually close access to Capitol Square after finding pro-choice messages written in chalk on the grounds.
In Virginia, however, it could be a powerful differentiator.
Holsworth sees the abortion issue playing an outsized role in next year’s General Assembly races. “It is going to be an absolutely central issue in the legislative elections in 2023,” he says. “In particular, it highlights the position of [State Sen.] Joe Morrissey, who is a pro-life Democrat.”
Morrissey, whose district includes parts of Richmond, Chesterfield and all of Petersburg, represents a critical swing vote in the Senate and has expressed support for restricting abortion access. Democrats, however, control the Senate Education and Health Committee, so getting any kind of pro-life legislation to the floor will be a heavy lift for the Republican governor, Holsworth says.
Meanwhile, Youngkin, who is often mentioned as a Republican presidential candidate, will feel pressure from the national GOP to be more aggressive on the abortion issue, Holsworth says. A ban at 15 or 20 weeks may not be enough to appease the conservative base.
“He’s always had two audiences,” Holsworth says. “He is the governor of Virginia, but [Youngkin] and his advisors certainly are trying to maintain an extremely visible national presence. He’s going to have to be clearer on what he thinks has to happen as this issue evolves.”
Unlike the national party, Democrats have a track record of recent legislative success in the General Assembly, Meagher says, particularly during the last two years (2020-21) when the party held the governor’s office and both chambers. Coupled with a Democratic base motivated to protect abortion rights, Republicans could face an uphill battle in 2023.
“If the Virginia elections of next year were this year, it would definitely affect it. It’s a reminder to everyone who the Republicans really are. Many of them want to curb reproductive rights,” Meagher says. “This is a stark reminder of the differences between the parties.”
At the press conference on Friday, Stoney did his best to sound the call. A clear majority of Virginians support abortion rights, according to recent polling. A Roanoke College poll released in early June found that 88% of Virginians support the right to an abortion in either some or all circumstances, up from 77% seven years ago.
“We know how we got here. Presidents, Republican presidents who did not win the majority of the popular vote, put extreme activists on the highest court of this land,” Stoney said. “And right here in Richmond, we have a governor who has already tried to chip away at Virginia’s access to abortion care. But the majority of people in this country, and the majority of those here in the commonwealth, don’t feel that way. [Youngkin] is in the minority. They are in the minority.
“We are the majority, and they know that we are not backing down.”
