Illustration by Heather Palmateer; images via Getty Images
Midterm elections are often tough on candidates who belong to the political party that controls the White House, but Democrats are doing what they can to reverse a long-running trend that this year should favor Republicans. For their part, Republicans will do what they can to maximize the chances that voters view the November elections as a referendum on President Joe Biden.
Given the narrowly divided nature of Congress — the Senate is split 50-50, with the Democratic vice president breaking the tie, and the Democrats control the House by fewer than a half-dozen seats — even modest gains by Republicans this fall will flip control on Capitol Hill.
Usually, though, the out-party gains are much more than modest in midterm elections. Four years ago, in the 2018 midterms, voters angry at then-President Donald Trump gave Democrats a net gain of 40 seats in the House and two in the Senate. Eight years ago, in the 2014 midterms, voters unhappy with then-President Barack Obama gave Republicans a net gain of 13 House seats and nine Senate seats.
In purple-hued Virginia, all eyes once again are on the suburban voters who usually prove decisive in Old Dominion politics. Two years ago, suburban voters helped Joe Biden win Virginia’s Electoral College votes, and with them the presidency. A year later, Republican Glenn Youngkin became governor by deflecting attempts by his Democratic challenger, Terry McAuliffe, to paint him as an acolyte of Donald Trump. Youngkin, meanwhile, reduced Democratic advantages in the suburbs by making McAuliffe appear as radical as possible.
The battle over the political center in Virginia can be seen again this year in Virginia’s 7th Congressional District, a highly competitive jurisdiction that stretches along Interstate 95 and includes parts of Prince William County and nearly all of the Fredericksburg region. The significantly re-drawn district, which two years ago had stretched north to south from the western suburbs of Fredericksburg to the western suburbs of Richmond and included the rural areas in between, features a swing-district competition this year between Democratic incumbent Rep. Abigail Spanberger and Republican challenger Yesli Vega.
Spanberger, who has consistently characterized herself as a centrist, has attacked Vega for what Spanberger argues are her far-right comments on abortion. In an attempt to paint her rival as an extremist, Spanberger, a former officer with the CIA and U.S. Postal Inspection Service, also recently attacked Vega as anti-law enforcement for voting against police budgets as a Prince William County supervisor and for her criticism of the FBI’s recent search for classified documents at former President Trump’s Florida resort.
This law-and-order focus is a variation on a theme that has worked well for Republicans in recent elections. In the past, Democrats have had to fend off criticism from Republicans for being anti-police, but former President Trump’s aggressive attacks against the FBI in recent weeks may have created a difficult spot for Republican candidates who want the support of Trump’s voters but might be wary about what the continuing FBI investigation will reveal.
For her part, Vega also attacked her opponent as an out-of-touch extremist and blamed Democrats for not doing more to reduce crime. Vega’s campaign website features her in a law enforcement uniform (she is an auxiliary deputy in the Prince William County Sheriff’s Office). Vega said that her opposition to tax hikes explains her votes on the county budgets, and she described the characterization of her as anti-police as “laughable.”
Republicans would clearly prefer to have the upcoming elections focus on evaluating the current president, as is usually the case two years into a presidential term. Biden suffers from lackluster public approval numbers, as presidents often do, and that middling support may energize unhappy Republicans to turn out in greater numbers. To maximize that possibility, Vega and other Republicans have attacked Biden and the Democrats for failing to control immigration and manage the economy effectively.
But former President Trump’s insistence on holding campaign events and being in the public eye may complicate those efforts. This year’s midterm election may end up being an evaluation of both Biden and Trump, rather than just the referendum on Biden that Republicans would prefer.
For now, both congressional candidates continue to focus on the law enforcement issue, describing themselves as the moderate candidate in the race as they court the district’s centrist voters. Appeals that focus on the moderate middle may seem counterintuitive, given the hyperpartisan political climate we have faced over the past several years, but focusing on one’s relative tameness appeals to undecided voters without offending one’s partisan base. Party loyalists usually come on board once the nomination season has ended.
As both congressional campaigns are demonstrating, courting the moderate vote remains a key part of trying to connect with the suburban voters who decide so many Virginia elections.
Stephen J. Farnsworth is a professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington, where he directs the Center for Leadership and Media Studies. Cassandra Atkinson is a junior political science and communication double major at UMW.
