This November’s election in Virginia is noteworthy for the number of competitive congressional races and the number of female Democratic nominees, a group of political analysts tells us. The analysts say they expect Democrats to pick up one to four of the 11 House seats (Democrats currently hold four, Republicans seven). Incumbent Republicans considered most vulnerable are 10th District Rep. Barbara Comstock and 2nd District Rep. Scott Taylor.
The analysts rate the 7th District contest between Republican incumbent Dave Brat and Democrat Abigail Spanberger a tossup (with little impact from Libertarian Joe Walton), along with the 5th District, where the Republican incumbent, Tom Garrett, withdrew and the party had to scramble to find a replacement.
As with last year’s gubernatorial election, President Trump dominates much of the discussion. “Virginia is a microcosm of what’s happening nationally,” says Geoffrey Skelley, media relations coordinator of the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
House of Representatives: 1st District
Observation: “Vangie Williams could make it interesting, but it’s tough to see how you get to a win for the Democrats.” Geoffrey Skelley, media relations coordinator, University of Virginia Center for Politics
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Vangie Williams (D) Raised: $421,322 **Cash Balance: $107,025 | *Rob Wittman (R) Raised: $1.4 million **Cash Balance: $699,943 |
House of Representatives: 4th District
Observation: “McEachin and Wittman are solid bets to return to the House.” —Rich Meagher, associate professor, Department of Political Science, Randolph-Macon College
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Ryan McAdams (R) Raised: $173,493 **Cash Balance: $27,235 | *Donald McEachin (D): Raised: $819,756 **Cash Balance: $271,476 | Peter Wells (L) Raised: $201 ***Cash Balance: $201 |
House of Representatives: 7th District
Observation: “It’s clear that Congressman Brat has his supporters, and he has his detractors, and they both tend to be pretty intense groups. The challenge for these candidates is to give people a powerful reason for turning out.” —Stephen J. Farnsworth, professor of political science and international affairs, University of Mary Washington
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Dave Brat* (R) Raised: $2.8 million **Cash Balance: $978,004 | Abigail Spanberger (D) Raised: $5.9 million **Cash Balance: $590,537 | Joe Walton (L) Raised: $6,573 **Cash Balance: $723 |
U.S. Senate
Observation: Stewart “is being mostly ignored by his party, by major funders and by the party’s nominees for House races.” —Mark Rozell, dean, Schar School of Policy and Government, George Mason University
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*Tim Kaine (D) Raised: $22.3 million **Cash Balance: $4.8 million | Corey Stewart (R) Raised: $2.6 million **Cash Balance: $699,943 | Matt Waters (L) Raised: $56,327 **Cash Balance: $8,198 |
Poll: Virginia Commonwealth University contacted 802 likely voters in July.
Note: * = Incumbent; ** = as of Oct. 17; *** = as of March 31
Headshots: Courtesy candidates' respective campaigns; Kaine: Jay Paul
Source: Fundraising totals are from the Virginia Public Access Project as of Oct. 17.
