COVID-19 numbers are trending in the wrong direction in Virginia and across the nation.
The Virginia Department of Health today reported 505 new COVID-19 cases, a 7-day positivity rate of 4.3%. VDH’s tracking of confirmed and probable cases of COVID-19 by date of infection shows a steady decline in cases from April into mid-June, with daily cases measured by the dozens instead of the hundreds. For example, on June 18, there were 147 confirmed and probable cases reported. For July 15, the VDH chart shows a count of 410 confirmed and probable cases.
Factors behind the rising numbers include a rise in variants in the virus that are more transmissible and inconsistencies in people following guidelines to reduce transmission, according to Catherine Long, public information officer for the Richmond and Henrico Health Districts. The best protection against COVID-19 and its variants is to get vaccinated. The vaccines are highly effective, as is evident by the numbers. VDH tracks COVID-19 cases by vaccination status here. The chart shows that between June 18 and July 18, people who were not fully vaccinated accounted for 97% of COVID-19 cases in the commonwealth.
Virginia residents who have not been fully vaccinated account for 99.3% of the commonwealth’s COVID-19 cases since Jan. 21, according to the VDH. That’s 196,217 cases. In that time frame, 6,299 people who were not fully vaccinated were hospitalized with the novel coronavirus (98.2% of the total COVID-19 hospitalizations in that period) and 2,451 died (98.5% of the total deaths in that time frame).
How well do the vaccines work? Looking at the chart, More than 4.5 million Virginians have been fully vaccinated. The state reports that 1,337 people who were fully vaccinated developed COVID-19; these are known as breakthrough cases. That represents 0.031% of the total fully vaccinated population. There were 114 vaccinated Virginians hospitalized with COVID-19 (0.0031% of the vaccinated), and 37 deaths (0.0006% of vaccinated individuals).
The Delta variant of the novel coronavirus has become prevalent across the nation. It’s on the rise here, too; accounting for 6.3% of cases in the central Virginia region (which includes Richmond) in mid-July, an increase from 3.8% at the start of the month, according to Long. Alpha variant, which is also more easily transmitted, was first diagnosed in the commonwealth in February. Learn more about the Delta variant here in a Virginia Commonwealth University discussion with Dr. Gonzalo Bearman and Michael Stephens.
Rates are increasing, but on the upside, “we haven’t yet seen a rise in hospitalizations or deaths, which is good news to us,” says Long. Statewide, about 53.6% of Virginia residents are fully vaccinated; about 64.6% of those aged 18 and older are fully vaccinated. In Richmond, 54% of residents are unvaccinated, according to Long. About 49.2% of Virginia’s Black residents are fully vaccinated, compared with 56.5% of whites and 63.4% of Latinos. Coupled with the rise in cases this summer, such a large pool of unvaccinated people is cause for concern as fall and winter near, and people spend more time together indoors, she notes.
Precautions including wearing masks indoors, following social distancing guidelines and getting tested or self-isolating as needed also help to stem the spread of the novel coronavirus, but they aren’t consistently followed. Long says that outreach workers have heard from unvaccinated people who wear a mask when out at a grocery store but forego the mask when they’re around friends and family. “We know that 100% adherence of unvaccinated individuals to mask-wearing and social distancing guidelines is difficult to obtain,” she says in an email.
Vaccines are free and readily available; the problem now is to get the shots in arms, and that’s proving difficult. Long notes that the emphasis now is amping up outreach and education efforts. Henrico and Richmond health districts have held more than 100 town hall sessions. They’ve also looked at census tract information to determine where vaccination rates lag and are sending people out into the community to go door-to-door to answer questions, allay concerns and get people signed up for vaccines.
