Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant, R-12th District
Democratic nominee Debra Rodman
After years of fighting against Medicaid expansion, some Republicans in Virginia did something unusual last year: They embraced it. For Chris Peace, a Hanover County-based Republican delegate first elected in 2006, vote to expand Medicaid opened the door to a challenge in the GOP primary from Hanover County Supervisor Scott Wyatt, who became the nominee after some intra-party wrangling.
The issue also could mean trouble for Republican Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant, who faces a challenge in November for her 12th District seat from Debra Rodman, a rising star in the state Democratic Party who flipped the 73rd District House seat blue in 2017.
Medicaid expansion was one of the main policy achievements of Democrats who won in the 2017 “blue wave” elections, flipping long-held Republican districts. Nearly 400,000 Virginians, many of them living in rural, GOP-led districts, have gained health care coverage as a result. A poll commissioned by the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association this year found that it’s been overwhelmingly well-received, with 71% of respondents in favor.
Richard Meagher, an associate professor of political science at Randolph-Macon College, says it’s a bad sign for Dunnavant, who has campaigned on her reputation as a doctor of obstetrics and gynecology. “It’s a double whammy,” Meagher says. “She opposed a popular program that helped, or at least didn’t hurt, Democrats in the last election, and she’s staked her political image on her identity as a doctor.”
Counting on another “blue wave,” the Democratic Party of Virginia sees even more districts at play this year. That’s the strategy behind Rodman’s run against Dunnavant, says Meagher. “Incumbents are most vulnerable in their second election,” which is true for both Dunnavant and Rodman. Because Rodman is only a one-term delegate, he says it’s a risky play. ”If the blue wave holds true, it won’t matter, and this is a great strategy. But the Democratic Party of Virginia doesn’t have a great track record when it comes to strategy.”
The two candidates are set to appear at a forum sponsored by ChamberRVA tonight from 6 to 7 p.m. at VPM (for Virginia’s home for Public Media) studios. Registration is full, but the forum will be shown via webcast on the VPM Facebook page and broadcast on 88.9 FM and vpm.org on Sunday at 6 p.m.
Rodman, a Randolph-Macon College anthropology professor who defeated former union, civil rights and immigration lawyer Veena Lothe in a hard-fought primary to run in the 12th, leaves her seat in the 73rd District to an open election between Republican Mary Margaret Kastelberg and Democrat Rodney Willett. Progressive activists such as Melissa Thomas McKenney of Together We Will Henrico echo Meagher’s criticism of the party strategy. She thought first-time candidate Lothe could have been a strong challenger to Dunnavant with party support, and Rodman would have had the strength of incumbency for her second run in the 73rd.
“I think Willett would be a good legislator, but it’s going to be a tough race, especially with Kastelberg showing a willingness to shift on issues like gun control,” she says. And resentment over heavy-handed tactics by the state Democratic Partyin the Lothe-Rodman contest probably won’t affect how people vote, McKenney says, but she’s seen less enthusiasm from some of the same people who worked hard to flip the 73rd District two years ago.
Still, she thinks Rodman has a good shot at winning the seat that Republicans have held for two decades. McKenney says, "[Dunnavant is] trying to make some concessions with marijuana legislation and her vote on the [Equal Rights Amendment], but not on the kitchen table issues like gun control and health care."
Out of the two, gun control probably will be the pivotal factor, says political science professor Quentin Kidd, who serves as the director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University. A new Washington Post-Schar School poll released last Friday found 75% of respondents identified gun policy as “very important,” and Kidd says it’s one of the main issues that motivates suburban women voters.
“I don’t think Medicaid expansion is individually important to voters in this district,” Kidd says. “There is a rural part of this district, and there are probably some people who benefited there, but it’s just not something that most of the voters are personally benefiting from.” Medicaid is more of a “cuing” issue, he adds, explaining that it signals priorities on other policies to the voter base Democrats are focusing on: white suburban women.
“Those voters were activated in 2016, and they’ve stayed active,” he says. “Medicaid expansion signals positions to them on lots of policies, from safer communities to gun control to a woman’s right to choose an abortion.” He thinks Republicans might be feeling safe with Dunnavant, counting on her to appeal to women voters, but he says it’s about more than simple identity.
“It’s about the policies,” he adds, and with the policies Rodman is pursuing, including gun regulations and expanding government health care programs, “I’d rather be the Democratic woman in this race than the Republican woman.”
Dunnavant, in a recent Facebook post responding to a news article about a pre-election health initiative announced by Northam, says, “The solution here is not more government run health care options, but more competition in the marketplace. That’s exactly what I’ve been proposing for the last two years with my legislation. He could have helped a lot of people if he hadn't vetoed it.” She adds, "Sounds like the Democrat agenda is in trouble."
Like Meagher and McKenney, Kidd agrees that scandals such as the discovery of a racist picture on Gov. Ralph Northam’s page in his 1984 medical school yearbook may be a challenge to Rodman. But he says they “haven’t been the wet blanket people thought [they] would be. Partially that’s because Northam has stayed off the campaign trail and let McAuliffe be the surrogate. Still, I expect to see Republicans try to tie those issues into local races, particularly as we get closer, because it can discourage Democratic voters.”
He notes that the party has tried Northam once this year, sending him out for Rosalyn Dance, a longtime Democratic lawmaker who faced a primary challenge in the 16th Senate District from disbarred lawyer Joe Morrisey. “We all saw how that turned out,” he says, pointing to Morrisey’s upset win.
For her part, McKenney says she’s disappointed by the lack of action following the scandals and primary controversy. The party appears to be doubling down on white suburban women, and hasn’t put the same resources into progressive women of color such as Lothe, a first-generation Indian-American. “I had hoped that those issues would lead to more self-reflection and introspection in the party,” she says. But with national money flooding the race and all eyes focused on Virginia in a year when few other states have pivotal elections, she fears the moment has been lost. She’s committed to the cause, she adds, but says, “I just want the party to be a better version of itself.”
Meagher, who’s also criticized the party this year, largely agrees with her view. “Republicans should be worried, and Democrats encouraged,” he says, especially considering Dunnavant’s current campaign, which he calls a pivot to moderates. He sees it as a sign that she’s worried.
He says, “I like to look at what candidates seem to feel, but that’s not always predictive. Look at [President Donald] Trump and 2016. No one thought he was going to win, least of all himself. It can all change on Election Night.”
