Image courtesy Virginia Department of Health
Central Virginia’s statistics regarding COVID-19 continue a downward trend, but what does this mean?
As of Thursday morning, the Virginia Department of Health’s statistics, which are updated daily, show a consistent decline since May 21 in the region of Central Virginia, which includes metro Richmond, in the number of cases as tracked by the onset of symptoms. Statewide, VDH’s chart shows an uptick in cases tracked by date of symptom onset from mid-June through late June, evident by spikes in the Southwest and East Virginia regions. About 6.3% of tests are currently coming back positive in the state.
Who’s getting sick? That becomes a complicated question when you’re trying to drill down by race or ethnicity, since about 24% (16,101) of the commonwealth’s 67,988 total COVID-19 cases counted in the VDH stats don’t have a racial designation. VDH shows that 34% of total cases (22,813) are among Hispanic people, 22% (14,743) are among white people, and 15% (10,147) are among Black people. An additional 4,184 cases are associated with other races and ethnicities. U.S. Census Bureau data says that 69% of Virginians are white, 20% are Black, and 10% are Latinx.
There are 47,703 cases in the commonwealth identified by Latinx, Black or white. Hispanics account for 48% of that number of cases, whites are 31%, and Blacks are 21%.
Looking at case stats from VDH and census information, in the city of Richmond, there are 2,333 COVID-19 cases as of today. Blacks are 48% of the population and account for 26% of COVID-19 cases; whites are 45% of the population and account for 9% of COVID-19 cases; and Latinx people are 7% of the population and account for 40% of COVID-19 cases. Race or ethnicity was not reported in 21% of the cases in the city.
In Henrico, there are 2,725 COVID-19 cases. Latinx people are 6% of the population and account for 21% of COVID-19 cases, Blacks are 31% of the population and account for 28% of COVID-19 cases, and whites are 57% of the population and account for 23% of COVID-19 cases. About 20% of cases in Henrico were reported without racial or ethnicity information.
The New York Times on July 5 reports a coronavirus infection rate per 100,000 population in America at 73 for Latinx people, 62 for Black people and 23 for white people, and an overall infection rate of 38 per 100,000. The stats are from an analysis of 1.5 million coronavirus cases.
The overall trend in the commonwealth seems to show that its reopening plan and efforts to promote social distancing and masking have helped keep infection rates from soaring, as is occurring in other parts of the nation.
“There is a way out of this,” says Dr. Arun Sanyal, a professor of internal medicine at Virginia Commonwealth University and researcher with the VCU Massey Cancer center who served as principal investigator for a trial of the drug Remesivir in treating coronavirus.
The drug apparently shortens recovery time. Its manufacturer, Gilead Science, has set a price of $329 per vial to the government, and $520 to private insurance companies. The most common treatment regimen for a patient is six vials over five days.
Sanyal notes that the drug is effective, but only part of the package in treating the virus. “It is not the magic bullet, but it is a very important first step," he says.
There’s no vaccine, and while treatments are improved, it takes members of the public acting responsibly to make the pandemic as manageable as possible. Sanyal cites France as an example of a Western democracy where “people actually used common sense and stayed home” and where they are now out and more safely returning to cafes and more normal life.
But that’s not happening everywhere, and states including Georgia, South Carolina, Florida, Texas and Arizona are seeing spikes in infections, sending the national average of new cases to new daily records, more than 59,000 new cases on July 8 nationally.
Disputes over the wearing of masks, the “Plandemic” conspiracy theory and those who disdain social distancing help to fuel the surge and place others at risk. It’s a reflection of the narcissism and self-entitlement of our society, says Sanyal.
“It is really dismaying to see such a lack of common sense and common decency,” he says.
There are no guards at state borders, and what’s happening elsewhere may eventually have an impact in areas where infection numbers have been trending downward, as in the commonwealth.
"Even though Virginia is doing better, it is a matter of time,” says Sanyal. “We are all going to get better, or we are not going to get better.”
