‘Graceful Growth’

As more move in, Richmond’s surrounding counties strive to manage development and change

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The Richmond region is attracting new residents at the highest level on record, according to Hamilton Lombard, a researcher with the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service.

“Over last year, there has been no letup in people moving in, predominantly out of Northern Virginia,” Lombard says. “The Richmond metro region has been the highest in the state. In four years, 55,000 more people have moved into the area than out. In 2000, which was the last growth spurt, 36,000 more moved in than out over a four-year period. Petersburg, as well as a number of exurban Richmond-area localities, is attracting new residents at its highest rate since before the Second World War. And that’s not slowing. Even the outlying areas are attracting a lot more moving in.” 

The reason for the runaway growth is that “Richmond is almost a suburb of D.C.,” Lombard says about the nation’s capital. “There are a large number of people in the D.C. area who can work remotely at least part of the time. But there are also a number of companies who need to be near D.C. but don’t want to locate there.”

Managing the Influx

With available land drying up in the metro area, as well as in Henrico and Chesterfield counties, growth in both the housing and commercial sectors is putting enormous pressure on outlying counties including Goochland, Powhatan and New Kent. Managing that growth while maintaining the rural nature of those counties is a delicate balancing act. 

“We are really growing,” says Manuel “Manny” Alvarez, Goochland’s interim county administrator. “We are the fastest-growing county in the state just behind New Kent. Between 2019 and 2023, we grew by about 14%. We haven’t really seen this kind of growth in a while.”

Alvarez, who served on the county’s Board of Supervisors twice from 2012 to 2020 and was also interim county administrator in 2021, says that most residents in Goochland “would like to see graceful growth. Henrico has run out of room, so they are all looking at Goochland. It’s hard because developers feel that we are against growth, but we are just trying to manage growth appropriately.”

Thoughtful guidance of residential development is common practice in metro Richmond’s outlying localities. New Kent County, which has the highest growth rate in the state, is still a small, rural community, according to Rodney Hathaway, New Kent’s county administrator since 2012. 

“We project our population is just over 27,000, but with the rate of growth, that brings about a significant amount of change in the county. And we are experiencing that. We are seeing increased demands for services, demands for infrastructure. That’s a challenge as far as staying ahead of that demand for services and keeping our infrastructure on pace with the growth here.”

Growing gracefully is also possible because of a lack of water and sewer service in rural areas, among other things.

“If [those areas] don’t have sewer and water, you must dig wells and septic systems. You can’t have large PUDs [planned unit developments] if you don’t have water and sewer, and the majority of those outlying counties don’t. You really have to focus on areas where water and sewer is located, and a lot of that land has been developed,” says Chad Joyce, a housing developer who spent 25 years with Ryan Homes and left to start his own business, Virginia Commonwealth Capital.

Culture Clash

The other real impediment to housing development in rural areas, Joyce says, is pushback from residents. “There are very few zoning cases that get approved in those counties. As a developer, I don’t even look at those counties because I know I have no chance of getting a development through due to rezoning.”

Finding a home in outlying areas can be a challenge. “They like their land and don’t want a ton of cookie-cutter communities,” says Jason Burke of Burke Realty Group. “We can’t find any homes for some of my clients due to lack of inventory.”

For Chuck Bent, whom many people in Goochland call the “town crier” for his popular emails tracking the county’s development, “rural” is not negotiable. “The rural character is something everyone who moved here holds near and dear. When we moved out here [to the eastern part of the county near Short Pump], the minimum was 3 acres for every house. Those standards have been eroded [since the county brought water and sewer in the Centerville section of the county], and now there are houses [on plots] as small as a quarter of an acre,” he says. “People here don’t want the Short Pump mindset and development.”

We are not looking for home growth. We are really looking for commercial growth.

—Manny Alvarez, Goochland’s interim county administrator

Keeping the unique quality of a community is even more difficult when the county surrounding it is committed to residential development, such as the town of Ashland, located in the center of Hanover County. 

“We have an expression: ‘What makes Ashland “Ashland”?’” says the town’s mayor, Steve Trivett. “The challenge for me in any application we get — in any plan for change — is, how can we not be dormant and become stagnant and unhealthy, but how can we grow and not lose our soul in the process?

“I know there are a lot of places that haven’t been able to retain their identity as growth goes around them. That’s the big challenge for us. We have a great relationship with Hanover County, but you don’t know what the county is going to want to do. So, we’ve focused on commerce.” 

Ashland’s decision to focus on building entrepreneurial spirit instead of more homes is a response arrived at by many similar communities.

“Housing prices have gone up humongously,” UVA’s Lombard says. “Counties are trying to diversify away from where they are pulling taxes. E-commerce continuing to grow has really pushed counties to build warehouse space. Counties see this as a good way to diversify their economies.” 

“I don’t think we are losing the rural character,” says Roxanne Salerno, Powhatan’s director of economic development. “I think that is something we are fighting really hard to make sure we preserve and maintain while also trying to carefully add in commercial as it comes through. The rural character is very important to our Board of Supervisors and our citizens, so we are doing as much as possible to keep the county the way it is but also look at different avenues on how we increase our revenue on the commercial side.”

To Infinity ...

Recent comprehensive plans, both those approved and those in development, for the outlying counties, have been making the most of strategic locations for commercial development. New Kent is about to close on an extensive long-range comprehensive plan to increase growth, particularly commercial expansion. 

“Growth is also a good thing for the county. It presents a lot of opportunities. We are seeing economic development opportunities today that we wouldn’t have seen years ago based on our population. We do believe that we can maintain our rural character and accommodate growth at the same time by strategically locating that growth within our county,” Hathaway says.  

“Our land-use plan concentrates growth along the four Interstate 64 interchanges, and the plan protects other areas of the county that we want to keep as rural,” he adds. “We hope that if we allow the supply and density to occur in those strategic areas, it will relieve the pressure for growth in the other areas of the county. We want to keep rural.”

The newest economic driver for New Kent is the proposed Buc-ee’s travel center that will add 75,000 square feet of retail sales, 120 fueling positions and parking for more than 650 vehicles. The purveyor of beef brisket, souvenirs and more was supposed to open this year. However, major road construction projects, including widening I-64 at Exit 211, have pushed back that opening until 2027. 

“We have a plan over the next three to four years to spend $100 million to make improvements along that throughfare,” Hathaway says. “Not only is Buc-ee’s at that exit, a good portion of land surrounding it is designated for economic and industrial development, such as the 800,000-square-foot Auto Zone warehousing and distribution facility that opened at the beginning of this year. Last week, we announced a 1.4 million-square-foot Target distribution center there.

“Also at Exit 220, the West Point exit, is another large corridor we are focused on for economic development. We have CarMax building a large vehicle restoration and auction house facility that should open by the end of the summer. We have a large-site construction group, called Dolores Group, moving their headquarters there.”

... and Beyond

Goochland also has some major commercial plans for the eastern part of the county. 

“We are not looking for home growth. We are really looking for commercial growth. That’s what we go after,” Alvarez says.

In particular, the proposed Rockville Opportunity Corridor is a massive warehouse development on Ashland Road near the I-64 interchange, home to an Amazon robotics fulfillment center. Dubbed Project Rocky, it will require its own alteration of I-64, with a diverging diamond interchange planned near the Manakin exit. 

“We have asked the state for funding and have gotten a lot to improve [Ashland Road], which is a concern for businesses nearby. That area of Ashland Road has been business/commerce for a long time with Luck Stone, Vulcan and others. But Project Rocky is huge, so those improvements are needed,” Alvarez says. 

For Powhatan, which doesn’t have the same easy access to an interstate, commercial development is more about the types of businesses they can attract.

“Route 60 is our main thoroughfare, and that’s where most of our development goes,” Salerno says. “Right now, we are working on a comprehensive plan update and saying, ‘OK, instead of allowing pretty much any commercial [development] to come here, let’s focus on light industrial and high-value commercial so we can get the best bang for our buck without spreading.’”

Finding the right mix of commercial real estate — to sustain government revenues — and new housing — to accommodate the influx of new residents without overwhelming rural communities — is a constant struggle.

“Placement and aesthetics make a difference,” Ashland Mayor Trivett says. “Whenever you put a stick into the water, you will see a little eddy form around it. When you approve building plans, it’s the same sort of thing. You want to try to anticipate as best you can the effect on the currents already flowing of people, their satisfaction and the local economy. Nobody can know the right mix with absolute 100% certainty.”