Students at Virginia Commonwealth University’s Monroe Park campus (Photo courtesy VCU)
Some of the Richmond region’s colleges and universities added students to their ranks after the COVID-19 pandemic. However, as the projected number of high school graduates is expected to shrink after 2025, institutions are focusing on ways to maintain or increase class sizes.
Hamilton Lombard, a demographics expert at the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center, says there have been warnings of a “doomsday” scenario in higher education because fewer Americans are having children. Since the last Great Recession, in 2008, birth rates have been on a downward spiral.
“We were losing so many manufacturing jobs. We had a lot of growth in construction and spending, but that sort of masked a larger economic problem,” Lombard says. “Once you had the financial crisis ... birth rates dropped. Then they just never came back.”
The scales could tip dramatically. The population of new high school graduates was estimated to peak at 3.9 million in 2025 before falling to 3.4 million in 2041, according to the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. The U.S. Department of Education projects a 7% drop in high school graduates from the 2024-25 school year through 2031-32.
In an October 2024 research report, the Brookings Institution said forecasts of a demographic disaster for higher education may be overblown, but that colleges and universities may need to rearrange academic programs and recruiting strategies to compete for a smaller pool of new high school graduates.
At Virginia Commonwealth University, the Richmond area’s largest higher ed institution, the enrollment count is still below prepandemic levels with just under 30,000 students. But the numbers have been rising of late, following efforts to expand enrollment and add more career-focused programs.
In 2023, VCU adopted a guaranteed admissions policy for high school students in the top 10% of their graduating classes or with a 3.5 GPA or above. Last fall, the university created Next Step, giving eligible Reynolds Community College students guaranteed admission if they complete 12 credit hours and earn a 2.0 GPA or better.
Hernan Bucheli, VCU’s vice president of enrollment management and student success, says enrollment is at a five-year high. “We are not passively accepting a decline in enrollment as inevitable,” he says, highlighting work the university has done to improve recruitment of transfer students, older adults and online learners while expanding academic programs in health, business and STEM fields.
“While demographic pressures are real, VCU is well positioned as an urban, research-intensive, access-oriented university,” Bucheli says. “We expect enrollment at VCU to remain stable, with opportunities for targeted growth in key programs and student segments as we continue to innovate in how we recruit, support and graduate our students.”
Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education
Lombard says larger public universities like VCU should be able to weather the change, especially as demographic trends in the Richmond area show a relatively larger share of young people than in other parts of the state. “[Richmond has] continued to bring in lots of families. It’s really had minimal declines in births compared to Hampton Roads or Northern Virginia,” Lombard continues. “So, if you’re thinking about how you’re recruiting just out of the Richmond area, which I think VCU does quite heavily, it’s in a lot better position demographically.”
He says larger universities may also find success recruiting students from community colleges, as with VCU’s Next Step program, or accepting high school seniors who might need more remedial support. Lombard says that could put downward pressure on community college enrollment. Those in Richmond, however, have grown as they’ve emphasized job-training programs based on the needs of local businesses and industries.
Brightpoint Community College’s two campuses in Chester and Midlothian, enrollment grew by 7% to 9,380 students this academic year, almost reaching its fall 2020 level. “As a community college, Brightpoint Community College serves a broad student population, from traditional-age learners coming right out of high school to adult learners who want to switch careers, upskill or pursue a college education for the first time,” says Holly Walker, Brightpoint’s public relations director.
Reynolds Community College has come closer to regaining the student counts it had in fall 2019, with about 8,681 enrollees at the start of the 2024-2025 academic year, the latest count available from the State Council of Higher Education. “Reynolds has experienced strong increases in workforce-aligned programs, health care fields, dual enrollment and short-term credentials that respond directly to regional employer demand,” says Rina Dyer, director of marketing for Reynolds. “This growth reflects both the continued need for accessible, affordable education and the role community colleges play in helping individuals reskill, upskill or pivot careers in a changing economy.”
Demographic and higher education experts say small colleges with few resources are most vulnerable to the population changes. Last fall, Mary Baldwin University in Staunton discontinued more than 15 academic minors, citing low enrollment. The privately run University of Richmond has experienced the biggest enrollment declines in the region; at just under 3,700 students, UR is down 7.5% since 2018.
Lombard says external factors, such as tuition costs, attitudes about the value of a college degree and federal restrictions on international student enrollment may also play a role. Meanwhile, institutions with specific affinities, like private Christian schools and historically Black colleges and universities, may be insulated by their specific appeals.
Virginia Union University and Virginia State University, the area’s two HBCUs, have grown by focusing their marketing efforts on affordability and career-centered programs. VSU, located in Ettrick, has grown by 31% to 5,754 students over the last eight years. Virginia Union has nearly 1,700 students, about 100 fewer enrollees than 2024, but more than there were in 2018.
Despite its small size, Randolph Macon-College this year surpassed its pre-COVID enrollment numbers with a total of 1,854 students at its 125-acre campus in Ashland.
Brenda Poggendorf, RMC vice president for enrollment management, says the college has focused on digital marketing tools and direct engagement with high school students throughout Virginia and surrounding states to meet recruitment goals. When demographic estimates projected the youth shift about a decade ago, college recruitment specialists started looking to make connections with high school students sooner.
“We've been expanding our footprint a little bit geographically” and working to recruit students earlier in their high school years, Poggendorf says. “When these current seniors were in elementary school, we knew that this was coming.”
